Last updated: 25 Feb 2025, 09:15 WIB
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Financial Health

TTM Sep-2025 · Revenue US$3.89B · EBITDA Margin 21.6%

Scenario Simulator
Revenue (TTM)
-8.7%
$3.89B
vs FY2024
EBITDA
-22%
$840M
vs FY2024 $1,077M
Net Profit
-29.8%
$238M
vs FY2024 $339M
Gross Margin
—
20.0%
Stable
Cash Position
-4.6%
$1.55B
vs FY2024 $1.62B
Free Cash Flow
-64.7%
$205M
Q1 annualized vs FY2024
Debt/Equity
-7%
34%
improved vs 41%
CAPEX Budget
—
$353M
FY2026 Plan
Dividend Yield
—
9.3%
Annualized
Stock (PGAS.JK)
+2.1%
IDR 1,980
52w: 1,425-2,020

P&L Waterfall

TTM Sep-2025 Income Statement (US$M)

EBITDA Margin Bridge

FY2024 25.3% → Q1 2025 21.2% — Decomposition

Cash Flow Forecast

90-day AI forecast with confidence bands (US$M)

$1.55BCASH

Debt Maturity Profile

Total Debt: US$1,281M · D/E: 34%

2025
$320M
25%
2026
$280M
22%
2027
$210M
16%
2028
$185M
14%
2029+
$286M
22%

CAPEX Tracker

FY2026 Budget: US$353M · Committed: US$139M (39%)

On TrackAt RiskDelayed
ProjectBudgetSpentProgressAI PredictionRiskStatus
Cirebon-Semarang Extension$125M$29M
23%
2026-Q3 (3mo delay)68at-risk
Arun Terminal Expansion$85M$52M
61%
2025-Q4 (on schedule)22on-track
East Java Digital SCADA$42M$35M
83%
2025-Q2 (on schedule)15on-track
Muara Karang Upgrade$38M$12M
32%
2026-Q1 (1mo delay)45at-risk
Virtual Pipeline Fleet$28M$8M
29%
2026-Q2 (on schedule)30on-track
Kalimantan Hub Station$35M$3M
9%
2027-Q1 (6mo delay)75delayed
Ask GASNETAI Business Analyst · Powered by Claude

GASNET AI Analyst

Ask me anything about PGN's financials, operations, risk, or market intelligence. I have access to real-time data.

What is our current EBITDA margin and why has it declined?
**Current EBITDA Margin: 21.2% (Q1 2025)** Your EBITDA margin has declined 4.1 percentage points from FY2024's 25.3%. The key drivers: 📉 **HGBT Price Impact** (-2.1pp): Government-regulated gas pricing at $6.5-7/MMBtu has compressed trading margins as procurement costs rose. 📉 **LNG Procurement** (-1.5pp): JKM spot prices at $14.2/MMBtu have significantly increased regasification input costs, despite the 39.4% volume growth. 📉 **OpEx Increase** (-0.9pp): Maintenance and labor costs up due to Cirebon-Semarang construction and SCADA digitalization. 📈 **Partially offset** by volume growth (+0.3pp) and regasification growth (+0.8pp). **Recommendation:** Run the HGBT scenario simulator at $6.0/MMBtu to assess downside risk ahead of 2026 pricing review. *Sources: SAP Financial Module, HGBT Pricing Database, JKM Market Feed*
Sources: SAP Financial Module, HGBT Pricing Database, JKM Market Feed