Risk & Compliance Center
Enterprise risk monitoring with AI-powered early warning
Risk Radar
6-dimension composite risk assessment
Composite:48/100
Market & Pricing72
Operational35
Regulatory58
Financial42
Geopolitical48
ESG & Climate30
Risk Dimension Details
Market & Pricing
72
HGBT pricing pressure + rising JKM spot prices. Margin compression risk elevated.
Operational
35
99.0% infra availability. Grissik-Batam pressure anomaly under investigation.
Regulatory
58
HGBT 2026 review pending. Potential formula change could impact $200M+ revenue.
Financial
42
D/E improved to 34%. Cash position strong at $1.55B. FCF concern if margins compress further.
Geopolitical
48
Natuna Sea tensions stable. LNG shipping routes secure. No immediate supply disruption.
ESG & Climate
30
Methane monitoring program on track. Carbon intensity declining. Green bond issuance planned.
Active Risk Register
| ID | Risk | Category | Severity | Probability | Impact | Mitigation | Due |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R-001 | HGBT 2026 Pricing Review | Regulatory | high | 75% | $200M+ revenue | Scenario modeling complete. Cost optimization plan in progress. | 2025-06-30 |
| R-002 | JKM Spot Price Escalation | Market | high | 60% | -1.5pp EBITDA margin | Long-term contract negotiations with BP Tangguh. Hedge strategy review. | 2025-04-15 |
| R-003 | Grissik-Batam Land Subsidence | Operational | critical | 40% | 320 MMSCFD at risk | Field inspection ordered. Contingency via Kalija interconnector. | 2025-03-01 |
| R-004 | Pertamina East Java Competition | Competitive | medium | 80% | 3-5% volume diversion by 2027 | Customer retention program. Long-term contract renewals. | 2025-09-30 |
| R-005 | Natuna Sea Geopolitical Tension | Geopolitical | medium | 20% | LNG route disruption | Alternative routing via Lombok Strait mapped. | Ongoing |
| R-006 | Methane Emission Compliance | ESG | low | 30% | Regulatory fine risk | Monitoring program deployed. Green bond issuance planned. | 2025-12-31 |
Regulatory Timeline
HGBT Q1 Review Committee Meeting
2025-03upcoming
ESDM Gas Allocation Decree Renewal
2025-04upcoming
HGBT 2026 Formula Public Consultation
2025-06upcoming
BPH Migas Annual License Review
2025-09planned
HGBT 2026 Final Determination
2025-12planned
New HGBT Price Effective Date
2026-01planned