HGBT Scenario Simulator

Model impact of government-regulated gas price changes on PGN financials

HGBT Price Adjustment

$5.50/MMBtu$6.75/MMBtu$7.50/MMBtu

Bear CaseCurrent: $6.75Bull Case

Revenue

$3890M

0.0% vs base

EBITDA

$840M

0.0% vs base

EBITDA Margin

21.6%

0.0pp vs base

Net Profit

$238M

0.0% vs base

Free Cash Flow

$205M

0.0% vs base

Base vs Scenario Comparison

HGBT $6.75 impact on key metrics

Margin Sensitivity Curve

EBITDA & Net Margin vs HGBT price ($5.50-$7.50)

AI Scenario Narrative

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What is our current EBITDA margin and why has it declined?

**Current EBITDA Margin: 21.2% (Q1 2025)** Your EBITDA margin has declined 4.1 percentage points from FY2024's 25.3%. The key drivers: 📉 **HGBT Price Impact** (-2.1pp): Government-regulated gas pricing at $6.5-7/MMBtu has compressed trading margins as procurement costs rose. 📉 **LNG Procurement** (-1.5pp): JKM spot prices at $14.2/MMBtu have significantly increased regasification input costs, despite the 39.4% volume growth. 📉 **OpEx Increase** (-0.9pp): Maintenance and labor costs up due to Cirebon-Semarang construction and SCADA digitalization. 📈 **Partially offset** by volume growth (+0.3pp) and regasification growth (+0.8pp). **Recommendation:** Run the HGBT scenario simulator at $6.0/MMBtu to assess downside risk ahead of 2026 pricing review. *Sources: SAP Financial Module, HGBT Pricing Database, JKM Market Feed*

Sources: SAP Financial Module, HGBT Pricing Database, JKM Market Feed